The key events in the foreign trade market in the second half of 2026 have entered a period of concentrated outbreak, and the core events are directly related to policy changes, cost restructuring, and market transfer, especially for export intensive areas such as Linyi in Shandong Province, which pose a systematic impact and transformation opportunity.
Canada's preliminary anti-dumping ruling has been implemented: the "life and death line" for plywood exports has been reached
On June 9, 2026, Canada officially announced the preliminary results of its anti-dumping and anti subsidy investigation into decorative and non structural plywood from China: the comprehensive tax rate was as high as 218% (anti-dumping duty 192%+anti subsidy duty 26%). The tax rate far exceeds industry expectations, directly leading to an expected contraction of over 70% in China's exports to Canada. Large scale orders from enterprises in major production areas such as Linyi have been cancelled, and some enterprises have been forced to suspend shipments and turn to USMCA regions such as Mexico and Vietnam for transit. June 9th is an irreversible watershed, and export companies that have not laid out alternative markets in advance are facing a cliff of zero orders.
Key impact: The North American market has shifted from "high profits" to "high barriers", and the traditional plywood export model is no longer sustainable.
EU CBAM carbon tariffs fully implemented: restructuring export costs, green compliance becomes a lifeline
Starting from January 1, 2026, the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will enter the substantive charging stage, expanding its coverage to 180 downstream products of steel and aluminum, including major export categories from China such as household appliances, machinery, and automotive parts. The implied carbon cost per ton of steel products for enterprises is 130-4670 yuan, and importers generally pass on the cost. The "default value method" accounting mechanism is extremely unfavorable for China's high emission production mode, and some inefficient enterprises are "exporting at a loss". Enterprises are forced to accelerate the replacement of green electricity, the construction of carbon data traceability systems, and the low-carbon transformation of supply chains, otherwise they will be excluded from the high-end procurement chain.
Realistic challenge: A home appliance exporter in Zhejiang province was required by an EU importer to lower its price by 18% due to the lack of a carbon data traceability system, resulting in a profit margin of less than 5%.
Adjustment of Export Tax Refund Policies for the "New Three Types": Policy Dividends Withdraw, Technological Barriers Rise
Starting from April 1, 2026, China will make significant adjustments to its export tax rebate policy for the "new three types":
Photovoltaic products: comprehensive cancellation of value-added tax export rebates;
Lithium batteries: The tax rebate rate has been reduced from 9% to 6%, and will be completely cancelled from January 1, 2027;
Electric vehicles: The tax rebate rate has not been adjusted yet, but the technical standards and carbon footprint requirements have been upgraded synchronously, resulting in a significant increase in export compliance costs.
⚠️ Enterprise response: The reduction of tax rebate rates combined with European and American carbon tariffs has squeezed the profit margins of enterprises in both directions, and they must turn to brand overseas, technology premium, and localized production.
Emerging markets accelerate substitution: ASEAN leads, Middle East and Africa become new growth poles
ASEAN: In the first half of 2026, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 15.7% year-on-year, maintaining its position as the largest trading partner for seven consecutive years. The RCEP dividend continues to be released, and the independent declaration of origin has increased the efficiency of enterprise benefits by 40%.
Middle East: In the first quarter of 2026, exports to the Middle East increased by 28%. The Saudi Arabia SASO 3114:2026 standard will be enforced on November 1, 2026, requiring communication equipment to support Wi Fi 7, LTE-M, AML emergency positioning, etc. Enterprises need to complete certification in advance.
Africa: Exports to Africa surged by 32.1%, Nigeria's SONCAP certification is fully digitized, and HS codes and Form M must match at the character level, otherwise customs clearance will be directly intercepted. China has implemented full coverage of zero tariffs on 53 African countries, and exports to Africa are expected to exceed $300 billion by 2026.
Strategic shift: China's share of exports to emerging markets has risen to 42%, surpassing the total of North America and the European Union for the first time.
Major International Conferences and Policy Trends: Rules Game Enters a New Stage
APEC Trade Ministers Meeting (May 2026, Suzhou): Focusing on "building an open and predictable regional and multilateral economic and trade order", 21 economies unanimously recognize China's potential for cooperation in the fields of digital economy and green technology, providing institutional endorsement for the "new three" to go global.
Investment Fair (September 2026, Xiamen): As the most influential investment event in the world, it will focus on promoting the two-way linkage between "investment in China" and "investment in China", providing a precise docking platform for cross-border e-commerce and overseas warehouse enterprises.
US China relations: On May 14, 2026, the China US summit officially established a new positioning for the "constructive strategic stability" relationship, but did not restart high-level economic and trade consultations. The 301 and 232 tariffs remain in effect, and the comprehensive tariff on China remains above 40%.
China EU Investment Agreement: No new round of negotiations will be held in the second half of 2026, technical consultations have stalled, and the prospects of the agreement remain unclear.
Implementation of domestic policies in China: dual improvement of compliance and efficiency
New Regulations on Export Tax Refunds (effective from June 1, 2026): The invoice remarks column must indicate "export business" at the top of the grid and be mandatory to include FOB price, customs declaration number, contract number, and other information. Five identical invoices become the hard threshold for tax refunds.
Cross border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zone: There will be no new pilot projects in 2026, but old comprehensive pilot zones such as Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Suzhou will deepen innovative models such as "tax refund upon departure" and "overseas warehouse pre supervision warehouse" to help small and medium-sized enterprises go global with light assets.
Local response: Linyi, Shandong Province has launched the "Plywood Export Transformation Special Fund" to support enterprises in building FSC certified production lines and developing alternative markets in North America. However, the funding scale is limited and it is difficult to cover the entire industry.
Global trade pattern: slowing growth, structural reshaping
WTO forecast: Global trade volume of goods will increase by 1.9% in 2026, the lowest in nearly a decade;
IMF forecast: Global GDP growth rate of 3.1% in 2026, but may drop below 2.5% if the Middle East conflict intensifies;
UNCTAD core conclusion: Intermediate goods trade accounts for 74% of global trade, and the trend of supply chain "friendly shore" is accelerating. The core positions of China and ASEAN in the Asian regional value chain are further consolidated, but the share of direct exports to the United States and Europe continues to shrink.
Core conclusion:
In the second half of 2026, China's foreign trade is not about "maintaining market share", but about "changing tracks".
North American market: high barriers, high costs, high risks, traditional categories such as plywood are no longer sustainable.
The EU market: The cost of carbon is forcing transformation, and without upgrading, one will be eliminated.
Emerging markets: policy dividends+explosive demand, the largest incremental space in the next three years.
The combination of "new three types" and cross-border e-commerce is the only path for small and medium-sized enterprises to break through.