The foreign trade market in the second half of 2026 is at a turning point of geopolitical restructuring, policy reshuffle, and the rise of emerging markets. Although China's foreign trade faces the dual pressure of high barriers in North America and carbon tariffs from the European Union, its overall resilience has significantly increased through structural transformation and market diversification. Especially for export intensive areas such as Linyi in Shandong, opportunities and risks coexist.
North American market: anti-dumping preliminary ruling triggers' cliff like impact '
On June 9, 2026, Canada officially announced the preliminary results of its anti-dumping and countervailing investigation into decorative and non structural plywood from China: the comprehensive tax rate was as high as 218%, including anti-dumping duties of 192% and countervailing duties of 26%. The tax rate far exceeds market expectations, directly leading to an expected contraction of over 70% in exports to Canada in the second half of the year. There has been a large-scale cancellation of orders from plywood production areas such as Linyi, and some companies have been forced to suspend shipments and turn to USMCA regions such as Mexico and Vietnam for transit. Although the US market has not increased taxes synchronously, due to supply chain linkage, the overall plywood procurement volume in North America is expected to decline by 40%. The TSCA+Lacey Act compliance costs combined with anti-dumping tariffs have caused Chinese plywood to lose its price competitiveness in the North American market.
???? Key impact: June 9, 2026 is the life and death line, and the preliminary ruling has locked in the trade pattern for the second half of the year. Export enterprises that have not laid out alternative markets in advance are facing a survival crisis.
EU market: CBAM carbon tariffs fully implemented, cost restructuring of supply chain
Starting from January 1, 2026, the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will enter the substantive charging stage and expand to 180 downstream steel and aluminum products, covering China's main export categories such as home appliances, automotive parts, machinery, and metal products. The implied carbon cost per ton of steel products exported by enterprises to the European Union is 130-4670 yuan, and importers generally transfer the cost to Chinese suppliers. The "default value method" accounting mechanism is extremely unfavorable for China's high emission production mode, leading to some inefficient enterprises losing money when exporting. Enterprises are forced to accelerate the replacement of green electricity, the construction of carbon accounting systems, and the low-carbon transformation of supply chains, otherwise they will be excluded from the high-end procurement chain.
???? Realistic challenge: In Q2 of 2026, a home appliance exporter in Zhejiang Province was required by an EU importer to lower its price by 18% due to the lack of a carbon data traceability system, resulting in a profit margin of less than 5%.
Emerging markets: ASEAN continues to lead, Middle East and Africa become new growth poles
ASEAN: In the first half of 2026, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 15.7% year-on-year, maintaining its position as the largest trading partner for seven consecutive years. The RCEP dividend continues to be released, with a cumulative reduction of 1.4 billion yuan in tax payments at Guangdong ports from 2023 to 2026. The self declaration of origin has increased the efficiency of enterprise benefits by 40%.
Middle East and Africa: In the first quarter of 2026, China's exports to the Middle East increased by 28%, while exports to Africa surged by 32.1%, with electric vehicles, photovoltaic modules, and construction machinery becoming core categories. China has implemented full coverage of zero tariffs on 53 African countries, and exports to Africa are expected to exceed $300 billion by 2026.
Latin America: Exports to Latin America increased by 15.4% year-on-year, with Brazil and Mexico becoming important incremental markets for new energy vehicles and smart home appliances.
???? Strategic shift: By 2026, China's proportion of exports to emerging markets has risen to 42%, surpassing the total of North America and the European Union for the first time, and the market diversification strategy has achieved significant results.
Structural momentum: dual wheel drive of cross-border e-commerce and "new three types"
Cross border e-commerce: In the first half of 2026, China's cross-border e-commerce exports reached 979.9 billion yuan, accounting for 7.8% of the total foreign trade exports and a year-on-year increase of 18.7%. TikTok Shop, SHEIN and other platforms are accelerating their penetration into the Middle East and Latin America, promoting the popularization of small order fast response and brand going global models.
The total export of electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products increased by 55%, accounting for over 22% of the total electromechanical exports. In Q1 of 2026, China's exports of new energy vehicles will account for 68% of the global total, becoming the core supplier of global green transformation.
Policy environment: US tariffs' feint ', global trade rules accelerate fragmentation
US: In May 2026, the US International Trade Court ruled that the 15% global temporary tariff imposed by the Trump administration under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act was invalid and only refunded the plaintiff, which is essentially non-existent. However, the 25% tariff under Section 301 and the 232 steel and aluminum tariff remain in effect, and the comprehensive tariff on China remains above 40%.
Global Trends: The WTO predicts that the global trade volume of goods will only increase by 1.9% in 2026, while the OECD predicts that the global trade growth rate will slow down to 2.3%. The regionalization and factional trade pattern will accelerate, and the multilateral system will continue to weaken.
International institutions predict that China's exports are stable with an upward trend, but the growth momentum is shifting
IMF predicts that China's exports will grow by 4.4% in 2026, higher than the global average, mainly due to emerging market demand and competitiveness of high-tech products.
The World Bank predicts that China's GDP will grow by 4.4% in 2026, with foreign trade as the key support.
OECD points out that China is climbing from "cost advantage" to "upstream of the value chain", and green manufacturing and digital trade have become new moats.
???? Core conclusion:
In the second half of 2026, China's foreign trade is not "maintaining growth", but "changing tracks".
North American market: high barriers, high costs, high risks, traditional categories such as plywood are no longer sustainable.
The EU market: The cost of carbon is forcing transformation, and without upgrading, one will be eliminated.
Emerging markets: policy dividends+explosive demand, the largest incremental space in the next three years.
Cross border e-commerce+new three types is the only path for small and medium-sized enterprises to break through.